Scientists believe there is almost no chance of east London developing coronavirus hotspots by the end of March.
Following the easing of lockdown measures and pupils returning to school on March 8, researchers at the Imperial College London’s have predicted the probability the probability of London boroughs becoming hotbeds of Covid-19.
The data has been produced by the Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College, in conjunction with its mathematics department.
It predicts the probability of local authorities recording at least 50 or 100 cases per 100,000 people over the coming weeks and becoming a 'hotspot' on an online map.
Waltham Forest, Redbridge, Newham, Hackney, Tower Hamlets, and Havering have been given a 0 per cent chance of hitting that mark by the week ending March 27.
The darker the colour the more likely an area will have a rate of infection above 50. Photo: Imperial College London
As it stands most of the boroughs have an infection rate just below 50, for example Waltham Forest’s rate of infection for the seven days to Mach 7 was recorded as 43.7 and Redbridge’s was 49.8.
Barking and Dagenham, which has ben given a one per cent chance of being above 50 cases per 100,000 people by that date, currently has an infection rate of one per cent.
Neighbouring Essex districts are considered more likely to break the 50 mark by the end of March.
Epping Forest has been given a five per cent chance, Brentwood 29 per cent and Thurrock 11 per cent.
The predictions are based on reported cases and weekly reported deaths, combined with mathematical modelling, which results in the probability of an area becoming a hotspot in the following weeks.
Imperial College states that its projections for hotspots assume no change in interventions and human behaviour has been made since a week before the last observed data. The data was last updated on Wednesday, February 24.
Imperial College also lists a number of limitations to its predictions.
It explains: "Predictions on this page assume no change in current interventions (lockdowns, school closures, and others) in the local area beyond those already taken about a week before the end of observations.
"An increase in cases in an area can be due to an increase in testing. The model currently does not account for this.
"Each area (local authority) is treated independently apart from the overall Rt estimate for its region. Thus the epidemic in a region is neither affected by nor affects any other region. It also does not include importations from other countries.
"The population within an area is considered to be homogeneous - i.e. all individuals are considered equally likely to be affected by the disease progression."
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